Anticipating Ethnic Conflict

This report provides a handbook for intelligence analysts to use in thinking about and attempting to anticipate the occurrence of ethnic conflict. The intended audience and users of the handbook are Army intelligence analysts, though analysts from other intelligence agencies also should find it useful. The handbook is formatted as a series of questions and guidelines for the analyst to focus on while preparing an assessment. The questions are based on a conceptual model of ethnic and communitarian strife that focuses on the processes of grievance formation and group mobilization.This document is the final product of a project entitled "Ethnic Conflict and the Processes of State Breakdown: Improving Army Planning and Preparation." The project aimed to improve the Army's ability to anticipate ethnic conflict as one aspect of its overall strategic planning and threat assessment. The academic audience will be especially interested in the appendix, whereas the more practically oriented audience may find the handbook of greater interest. The two are provided here because the publication attempts to combine them in order to provide a theoretically grounded tool for practical use.The research was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, U.S. Army, and was conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND's Arroyo Center. The Arroyo Center is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army.